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<title>Differential technological development</title>
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<span id="openzim-page-title" class="mw-page-title-main"><span class="mw-page-title-main">Differential technological development</span></span>
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<p><b>Differential technological development</b> is a strategy of technology governance aiming to decrease risks from <a href="Emerging_technologies" title="Emerging technologies">emerging technologies</a> by influencing the sequence in which they are developed. Using this strategy, societies would strive to delay the development of harmful technologies and their applications while accelerating the development of beneficial technologies, especially those that offer protection against harmful technologies.<sup id="cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Bostrom_2002-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-:0_2-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History_of_the_idea">History of the idea</h2></div>
<p>Differential technological development was initially proposed by philosopher <a href="Nick_Bostrom" title="Nick Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</a> in 2002<sup id="cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Bostrom_2002-1"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>1<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> and he applied the idea to the governance of artificial intelligence in his 2014 book <a href="Superintelligence%3A_Paths%2C_Dangers%2C_Strategies" title="Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies">Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</a>.<sup id="cite_ref-3" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-3"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>3<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> The strategy was also endorsed by philosopher <a href="Toby_Ord" title="Toby Ord">Toby Ord</a> in his 2020 book <a href="The_Precipice%3A_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity" title="The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity">The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity</a>, who writes that "While it may be too difficult to prevent the development of a risky technology, we may be able to reduce <a href="Existential_risk" class="mw-redirect" title="Existential risk">existential risk</a> by speeding up the development of protective technologies relative to dangerous ones."<sup id="cite_ref-:0_2-1" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-:0-2"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>2<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-4" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-4"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>4<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Informal_discussion">Informal discussion</h2></div>
<p><a href="Paul_Christiano_(researcher)" class="mw-redirect" title="Paul Christiano (researcher)">Paul Christiano</a> believes that while accelerating technological progress appears to be one of the best ways to improve human welfare in the next few decades, a faster rate of growth cannot be equally important for the far future because growth must eventually saturate due to physical limits. Hence, from the perspective of the far future, differential technological development appears more crucial.<sup id="cite_ref-Christiano2014_5-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Christiano2014-5"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>5<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
</p><p>Inspired by Bostrom's proposal, <a href="Luke_Muehlhauser" class="mw-redirect" title="Luke Muehlhauser">Luke Muehlhauser</a> and <a href="Center_for_Applied_Rationality" title="Center for Applied Rationality">Anna Salamon</a> suggested a more general project of "differential intellectual progress", in which society advances its wisdom, philosophical sophistication, and understanding of risks faster than its technological power.<sup id="cite_ref-Muehlhauser2012_6-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Muehlhauser2012-6"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>6<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup><sup id="cite_ref-Muehlhauser2013_7-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Muehlhauser2013-7"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>7<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup> <a href="Brian_Tomasik" title="Brian Tomasik">Brian Tomasik</a> has expanded on this notion.<sup id="cite_ref-Tomasik2013_8-0" class="reference"><a href="#cite_note-Tomasik2013-8"><span class="cite-bracket">[</span>8<span class="cite-bracket">]</span></a></sup>
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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="See_also">See also</h2></div>
<ul><li><a href="Existential_risk" class="mw-redirect" title="Existential risk">Existential risk</a></li></ul>
<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>
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<li id="cite_note-Bostrom_2002-1"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-Bostrom_2002_1-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><style data-mw-deduplicate="TemplateStyles:r1238218222">
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</style><cite id="CITEREFBostrom,_Nick2002" class="citation journal cs1"><a href="Nick_Bostrom" title="Nick Bostrom">Bostrom, Nick</a> (2002). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://jetpress.org/volume9/risks.html">"Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios"</a>. <i>Journal of Evolution and Technology</i>.</cite><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:827452c3-fcba-41b8-86b0-407293e6617c">Oxford Research Archive</a></span>
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<li id="cite_note-:0-2"><span class="mw-cite-backlink">^ <a href="#cite_ref-:0_2-0"><sup><i><b>a</b></i></sup></a> <a href="#cite_ref-:0_2-1"><sup><i><b>b</b></i></sup></a></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFOrd2020" class="citation book cs1">Ord, Toby (2020). <i>The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity</i>. United Kingdom: <a href="Bloomsbury_Publishing" title="Bloomsbury Publishing">Bloomsbury Publishing</a>. p. 200. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-1526600219</bdi>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-3"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFBostrom2014" class="citation book cs1">Bostrom, Nick (2014). <i>Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</i>. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. <span class="nowrap">229–</span>237. <a href="ISBN_(identifier)" class="mw-redirect" title="ISBN (identifier)">ISBN</a> <bdi>978-0199678112</bdi>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-4"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-4">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFPurtill2020" class="citation magazine cs1">Purtill, Corinne (21 November 2020). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-close-is-humanity-to-the-edge">"How Close Is Humanity to the Edge?"</a>. <i>The New Yorker</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">2020-11-27</span></span>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-Christiano2014-5"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Christiano2014_5-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFChristiano2014" class="citation news cs1">Christiano, Paul (15 Oct 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://effective-altruism.com/ea/9f/on_progress_and_prosperity/">"On Progress and Prosperity"</a>. <i>Effective Altruism Forum</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">21 October</span> 2014</span>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-Muehlhauser2012-6"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Muehlhauser2012_6-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFMuehlhauserAnna_Salamon2012" class="citation web cs1">Muehlhauser, Luke; Anna Salamon (2012). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141026105011/http://intelligence.org/files/IE-EI.pdf">"Intelligence Explosion: Evidence and Import"</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span>. pp. <span class="nowrap">18–</span>19. Archived from <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://intelligence.org/files/IE-EI.pdf">the original</a> <span class="cs1-format">(PDF)</span> on 26 October 2014<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">29 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-Muehlhauser2013-7"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Muehlhauser2013_7-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFMuehlhauser2013" class="citation web cs1">Muehlhauser, Luke (2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://intelligenceexplosion.com/2012/ai-the-problem-with-solutions/">"Facing the Intelligence Explosion"</a>. Machine Intelligence Research Institute<span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">29 November</span> 2013</span>.</cite></span>
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<li id="cite_note-Tomasik2013-8"><span class="mw-cite-backlink"><b><a href="#cite_ref-Tomasik2013_8-0">^</a></b></span> <span class="reference-text"><cite id="CITEREFTomasik2013" class="citation web cs1">Tomasik, Brian (23 Oct 2013). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://foundational-research.org/differential-intellectual-progress-as-a-positive-sum-project/">"Differential Intellectual Progress as a Positive-Sum Project"</a>. <i>Foundational Research Institute</i><span class="reference-accessdate">. Retrieved <span class="nowrap">18 February</span> 2016</span>.</cite></span>
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</style><div id="Future_of_Humanity_Institute51" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Future_of_Humanity_Institute" title="Future of Humanity Institute">Future of Humanity Institute</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">People</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">
<ul><li><a href="Nick_Bostrom" title="Nick Bostrom">Nick Bostrom</a></li>
<li><a href="K._Eric_Drexler" title="K. Eric Drexler">K. Eric Drexler</a></li>
<li><a href="Robin_Hanson" title="Robin Hanson">Robin Hanson</a></li>
<li><a href="Toby_Ord" title="Toby Ord">Toby Ord</a></li>
<li><a href="Anders_Sandberg" title="Anders Sandberg">Anders Sandberg</a></li>
<li><a href="Rebecca_Roache" title="Rebecca Roache">Rebecca Roache</a></li></ul>
</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Concepts</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-even hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">
<ul>
<li><a href="Global_catastrophic_risk" title="Global catastrophic risk">Global catastrophic risk</a></li>
<li><a href="Great_Filter" title="Great Filter">Great Filter</a></li>
<li><a href="Pascal's_mugging" title="Pascal's mugging">Pascal's mugging</a></li>
<li><a href="Reversal_test" title="Reversal test">Reversal test</a></li>
<li><a href="Self-indication_assumption" class="mw-redirect" title="Self-indication assumption">Self-indication assumption</a></li>
<li><a href="Self-sampling_assumption" class="mw-redirect" title="Self-sampling assumption">Self-sampling assumption</a></li>
<li><a href="Simulation_hypothesis" title="Simulation hypothesis">Simulation hypothesis</a></li>
<li><a href="Singleton_(global_governance)" title="Singleton (global governance)">Singleton</a></li></ul>
</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="width:1%">Works</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd hlist" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">
<ul><li><i><a href="Anthropic_Bias_(book)" class="mw-redirect" title="Anthropic Bias (book)">Anthropic Bias</a></i></li>
<li><i><a href="Global_Catastrophic_Risks_(book)" title="Global Catastrophic Risks (book)">Global Catastrophic Risks</a></i></li>
<li><i><a href="Human_Enhancement_(book)" class="mw-redirect" title="Human Enhancement (book)">Human Enhancement</a></i></li>
<li><i><a href="The_Precipice%3A_Existential_Risk_and_the_Future_of_Humanity" title="The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity">The Precipice</a></i></li>
<li><i><a href="Superintelligence%3A_Paths%2C_Dangers%2C_Strategies" title="Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies">Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies</a></i></li></ul>
</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
<div class="navbox-styles"></div><div role="navigation" class="navbox" aria-labelledby="Emerging_technologies167" style="padding:3px"><table class="nowraplinks hlist mw-collapsible autocollapse navbox-inner" style="border-spacing:0;background:transparent;color:inherit"><tbody><tr><th scope="col" class="navbox-title" colspan="2" style="text-align: center;"><div id="Emerging_technologies167" style="font-size:114%;margin:0 4em"><a href="Emerging_technologies" title="Emerging technologies">Emerging technologies</a></div></th></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="navbox-group" style="text-align: center;;width:1%">Topics</th><td class="navbox-list-with-group navbox-list navbox-odd" style="width:100%;padding:0"><div style="padding:0 0.25em">
<ul><li><a href="Automation" title="Automation">Automation</a></li>
<li><a href="Collingridge_dilemma" title="Collingridge dilemma">Collingridge dilemma</a></li>
<li><a href="Disruptive_innovation" title="Disruptive innovation">Disruptive innovation</a></li>
<li><a href="Ephemeralization" title="Ephemeralization">Ephemeralization</a></li>
<li><a href="Ethics_of_technology" title="Ethics of technology">Ethics</a>
<ul><li><a href="Ethics_of_artificial_intelligence" title="Ethics of artificial intelligence">AI</a></li>
<li><a href="Bioethics" title="Bioethics">Bioethics</a></li>
<li><a href="Cyberethics" title="Cyberethics">Cyberethics</a></li>
<li><a href="Neuroethics" title="Neuroethics">Neuroethics</a></li>
<li><a href="Robot_ethics" title="Robot ethics">Robot ethics</a></li></ul></li>
<li><a href="Exploratory_engineering" title="Exploratory engineering">Exploratory engineering</a></li>
<li><a href="Proactionary_principle" title="Proactionary principle">Proactionary principle</a></li>
<li><a href="Technological_change" title="Technological change">Technological change</a>
<ul><li><a href="Technological_unemployment" title="Technological unemployment">Technological unemployment</a></li></ul></li>
<li><a href="Technological_convergence" title="Technological convergence">Technological convergence</a></li>
<li><a href="Technological_evolution" title="Technological evolution">Technological evolution</a></li>
<li><a href="Technological_paradigm" title="Technological paradigm">Technological paradigm</a></li>
<li><a href="Technology_forecasting" title="Technology forecasting">Technology forecasting</a>
<ul><li><a href="Accelerating_change" title="Accelerating change">Accelerating change</a></li>
<li><a href="Future-oriented_technology_analysis" title="Future-oriented technology analysis">Future-oriented technology analysis</a></li>
<li><a href="Horizon_scanning" title="Horizon scanning">Horizon scanning</a></li>
<li><a href="Moore's_law" title="Moore's law">Moore's law</a></li>
<li><a href="Technological_singularity" title="Technological singularity">Technological singularity</a></li>
<li><a href="Technology_scouting" title="Technology scouting">Technology scouting</a></li></ul></li>
<li><a href="Technology_in_science_fiction" title="Technology in science fiction">Technology in science fiction</a></li>
<li><a href="Technology_readiness_level" title="Technology readiness level">Technology readiness level</a></li>
<li><a href="Technology_roadmap" title="Technology roadmap">Technology roadmap</a></li>
<li><a href="Transhumanism" title="Transhumanism">Transhumanism</a></li></ul>
</div></td></tr><tr><td class="navbox-abovebelow" colspan="2" style="text-align: center;"><div>
<ul><li><span class="noviewer" typeof="mw:File"><span title="List-Class article"></span></span> <b><a href="List_of_emerging_technologies" title="List of emerging technologies">List</a></b></li></ul>
</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div>
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